🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.