Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
